The Big Lie

Everything that I will argue here will be based on a simple syllogism:

It is impossible to accurately model any chaotic system.

The climate is a chaotic system. 

Therefore, the climate cannot be modeled.

And that’s it. That my position. We are being told to believe – and belittled when we do not – that scientists can truly know with any degree of accuracy what the climate will do on 50, 100, 200 years time. They can’t. There aren’t computers fast enough to model all the variables, or even most of the variables, so as to create a model of how the Earth will behave 10 years out, let alone 10 decades. 

And if the models are meaningless, what good is the science? It means that, at best, scientists have a partial understanding of one component of the Earth’s climate, and a small one at that, and how it behaves. But what makes things really complicated is when we try to model how that component affects every other component, and those in turn affect still other components. We have no solid idea how these things interact. 

We are making major policy decisions and condemning entire populations to continued poverty on the basis of a discipline that has never once successfully forecast anything more than general temperature variances more than one or two seasons out. And yet we are told we are horrible people that ought to be subject to prosecution for stating these doubts.  

That’s scary. It’s Orwellian. But what it mostly is, is bullshit. 

No one knows what the climate will do in the future. No one can. You’re being lied to. 

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The Big Lie

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